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Trends & Market Structure

What Is a Market Cycle

A market cycle is the order four stretches come in: a fall, called the markdown; a flat stretch at the bottom, the accumulation; a rise, the markup; a flat stretch at the top, the distribution; and the fall again. This paper shows you one whole cycle drawn from fourteen months of the euro's turning points, the idea as the four seasons, the cycle on the weekly chart, its smooth shape, and the monthly chart on your platform where a cycle fits in one window.

Difficulty
Intermediate
Reading time
5 min
Pages
8
Reviewed by
Saman Rahbar

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One whole cycle

A market cycle is the order four stretches come in. The euro against the dollar fell from 1.12136 in September 2024 to 1.01771 in January 2025: the markdown. It then spent seven weeks flat, between 1.0177 and 1.0533: the accumulation. It rose to 1.18295 by July: the markup. It spent eleven weeks flat near the top, between 1.139 and 1.192: the distribution. Then it fell, to 1.14686 by November: the next markdown. The four names describe the four stretches. The order they come in is the cycle.

The four seasons

The picture is the year. Spring is the markup, when the price rises. Summer is the distribution, when it goes flat at the top. Autumn is the markdown, the fall. Winter is the accumulation, flat at the bottom before the next spring. The seasons of a market do not keep to the calendar — a winter can be seven weeks or two years — but they keep to the order, and that order is what the word cycle means.

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