Price Action

The Market That Isn't Trending

Markets are said to range most of the time, and the advice that follows is to buy the low edge and sell the high one. Both halves need examining. A range is not a state the market enters; it is a description you can only apply after an edge has held twice, which means every range is recognised late by construction. And the trade it licenses is the exact mirror of trend following: a high win rate, small wins, and a fat left tail where one break repays a season of held edges. This paper counts how often an edge holds, shows why the edge is a zone rather than a line, and derives from the mirrored distribution why a high win rate is the warning rather than the reassurance.

Difficulty

Intermediate

Reading time

44 min

Pages

22