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Trends & Market Structure

How to Know a Trend Has Ended

A trend is known to have ended when the three things that made it a trend have each stopped being true: the trend line has been closed through, a low has come in under the last low, and a high has come in under the last high. This paper shows you the three signs arriving in order on the euro's autumn of 2025, drawn from its turning points, the idea as a building whose lights go out one at a time, the three signs on the daily chart, the dates they came on, and how to mark each with a check sign on your platform.

Difficulty
Advanced
Reading time
5 min
Pages
8
Reviewed by
Saman Rahbar

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Three signs, in order

A trend is made of three things: a line under its lows that holds, lows that come in higher, and highs that come in higher. It is known to have ended when each of the three has stopped being true. The euro's rise from 1 August 2025 made higher lows and higher highs into 1.19189 on 17 September. Then, in order: on 25 September a close under the line that had run under the August lows; on 9 October a low at 1.15421, under the last low of 1.15741; on 17 October a high at 1.17284, under the last high. Three signs, and the rise was over.

A building at night

The picture is a building at night. While the trend runs, three windows are lit: the line is holding, the lows are rising, the highs are rising. One light going out is an evening; it happens in every trend and means little on its own. All three going out, one after another, is the building closed for the night. A trend has ended when the three things that made it a trend have each gone dark, and not before.

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