How Much to Risk on One Trade

One number, four rows

How much to risk on one trade is one number: the share of the account a single trade may lose, chosen before the trade. Everything else follows from it. Take gold at its 17 December 2025 close of 4338.28, a 20-dollar distance to the stop as an example, and a 10,000-dollar example account. At one per cent the money is 100 dollars and the size 0.05 lot; at two, 200 and 0.10; at five, 500 and 0.25; at ten, 1,000 and 0.50. And by arithmetic alone, the number of losses in a row that would halve the account is 69, 35, 14 and 7. The distance never changed; the share did, and every other number on the row moved with it.

A measuring cup

Picture a measuring cup and a jug. The jug is the account; the cup is one trade's share of it, filled to a mark chosen before the jug is tipped, and the same mark every time, however the last cup tasted. How much to risk on one trade is which mark the cup is filled to — one per cent, two, five. A bigger cup empties the jug in fewer pours, and the last column of the first drawing is that count: 69 pours at the one per cent mark before the jug is half empty, 35 at two, 14 at five, 7 at ten. The mark is the decision. The pouring is only arithmetic, and it never argues.

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